The 15 Billion Tree Question: Are We Planting Forests or Wasting Futures?

For the better part of this week, I have been crunching numbers. Not for a spreadsheet or a government report, but because I believe that when we communicate numbers honestly and clearly, we can finally share a truthful vision for a better country. One figure has been running through my mind constantly: 15 billion.

That is the number of trees the Kenyan government aims to plant in the next few years. It is an ambitious target, a headline-grabbing commitment to fighting climate change and restoring our landscape. On paper, it sounds like a green revolution in the making. But after running the math from my own small corner of this country—a tree nursery struggling to survive—I have to ask a difficult question: Is this campaign truly planting forests, or is it wasting futures?

The Economic Promise Hiding in Plain Sight

Let us begin with the vision of what could be. If we approach this target with honesty, the economic potential is staggering. Consider the value of a single tree seedling. If we account for the time, labour, and resources required to nurture a seedling to the point of planting, a fair and honest price is around 100 Kenyan Shillings. Now, multiply that by 15 billion.

The result is an economic injection of 1.5 trillion Kenyan Shillings flowing directly into the economy, mostly at the grassroots level. That is not just an environmental investment; it is a jobs programme. A production chain of this scale would, in all honesty, create at least 500,000 new jobs—employment for nursery operators, transporters, planters, and community monitors.

Half a million jobs. 1.5 trillion shillings. This is the opportunity hiding in plain sight. This is what a truly national, community-centred tree-growing campaign could and should achieve. But has it?

The Painful Reality of Wasted Effort

My honest answer, rooted in daily experience, is no.

I run a small tree nursery. Every year, my team and I work tirelessly to produce between 80,000 and 110,000 high-quality seedlings. We pour our savings, our time, and our dreams into this work. Yet for the past two years, an average of 40,000 to 50,000 of those seedlings have gone unplanted. They sit in their tubes, dry up, and die. They are wasted.

Let us put a number on that waste. At 100 shillings per seedling, that is 4 to 5 million shillings of lost value, wasted effort, and crushed dreams—every single year, from just one small nursery. Multiply that across the countless small-scale producers in every county, and you begin to see the true scale of the problem. We are not just losing trees; we are losing livelihoods.

For a country that prides itself on ambition, this is the honest accounting of failure.

A Smarter, Fairer Path Forward

The frustration is not just about waste; it is about the existence of a proven, better alternative. There is a model that works, and it places communities at the centre.

Imagine if the government approached a local youth group and said: "We want you to produce 100,000 seedlings this year. We will agree on a fair production cost—say, 50 shillings per seedling. Once you have grown them, you will work with your community to plant them and ensure they survive."

That simple shift would inject 5 million shillings directly into a local group. It would create dignified, reliable income for 20 or 30 young people—each potentially earning between 200,000 and 300,000 shillings a year from their own work. That is real money. That sends children to school. That builds hope.

But the benefits do not stop at income. Those same young people would become the stewards of the project. They would work alongside farmers, follow up on planted trees, replace those that did not survive, and build a culture of accountability. They would be invested in the long-term success of every single tree because their own success depends on it. This is the model that builds forests and futures simultaneously.

The Quick Fix That Kills Dreams

Instead, what do we get? A few weeks ago, we received visitors from the Department of Forestry. Their proposal was simple: provide a list of our members so the government could give them seedlings directly. Not purchase from us. Not partner with us. Just hand out free seedlings produced elsewhere, by someone else, in some office in Nairobi.

They were asking us to be passive recipients of a "quick fix"—the very same people who have already proven we can produce hundreds of thousands of quality seedlings. They were solving a problem they created (lack of trees) by creating a new one (undermining local enterprise).

The question we must ask ourselves is blunt: Are we opening opportunities, or are we killing dreams?

When I raise these concerns publicly, I am sometimes accused of being "bitter." And perhaps they are right. It is bitter to watch talented, hardworking people struggle to pay bills while their labour goes to waste. It is bitter to see those in power ignore the real work happening at the grassroots, choosing instead to focus on what is media-savvy and camera-friendly—a celebrity endorsement, a photo opportunity—while the unglamorous, difficult work of building sustainable systems is neglected.

A Generation Demands Better

The truth is this: the current vision for the 15 billion tree campaign, if left unchanged, will simply enrich a handful of individuals. It is a system designed for those who already have big cars and big houses—a system built on opportunism, not opportunity. That is a cynical, if not destructive, attitude towards our collective future.

But there is reason for hope. Across this country, a generation of young people is rising. They are fed up with being treated as recipients rather than partners. They are looking the system in the face and asking a simple, powerful question: "What the hell are you doing?"

I do not claim to be their leader. There are many brave, honest young leaders speaking out every day. But I will add my voice to theirs. We are questioning the practicality of imposing decisions from distant offices. We are demanding to know why a handout is seen as more practical than a genuine partnership with the people who know the land, the climate, and the communities best.

The Way Forward

We stay hopeful. We keep our heads high and our hands in the soil. At Forezava, we continue our work, nurturing seedlings and building a different model from the ground up. We hope that one day, our leaders will see us not as recipients of charity, but as actual contributors to a shared vision.

The opportunity to create 500,000 jobs and inject 1.5 trillion shillings into our economy is still there. It has not vanished. But capturing it requires a fundamental shift—from counting numbers to creating value, from top-down control to community partnership, from opportunism to conscious, inclusive leadership.

Join the Conversation

This is only a glimpse into a much deeper conversation. In the video that accompanies this message, I go into greater detail on the numbers, the personal stories, and the vision for a better way. I encourage you to watch it and see the full picture.

Watch the full video here: https://www.facebook.com/share/v/18KFMaFzUL/ 

To learn more about the work we are doing and the alternative model we are building, please visit our website at forezava.org.

The 15 billion tree question will not be answered by saplings in the ground alone. It will be answered by whether those trees create lasting value for the people who nurture them. Let us move beyond the numbers and start growing a future that truly takes root—for everyone.

About Author: Kevin Makova